Tomasz Tunguz, a general partner at Theory Ventures, argues in a short blog post that the contest between Anthropic and OpenAI is now settled as much by price lists as by model quality. He points to two moves in 2026. Anthropic began metered billing for enterprise customers in March, and by his account revenue doubled inside a single quarter. OpenAI answered roughly three months on, slashing the price of Luna, its cheapest model, by 80 percent. Tunguz credits that cut with lifting its annualized revenue toward $70 billion.
Those numbers are his reading of the market, and he concedes that margins remain unclear. He suggests gross profit per token would be a fairer yardstick. His forecast is that both companies approach $100 billion in yearly revenue by the end of 2026.
The sharpest point concerns concentration. Citing the leaked Anthropic S-1, the IPO filing, he writes that Amazon and Google together accounted for close to 25 percent of what Anthropic booked the year before, and neither is tied to a long-term contract. Buyers that large keep real leverage over what either lab can charge.
Analysis by Tomasz Tunguz on his own blog. The page carries no reliable publication date.
